MUST-WATCH: Inside the mind of the world's #1 Polymarket (@Polymarket) trader Domer (@Domahhhh) made $3M+ trading on Polymarket. He called the JD Vance VP pick & won $100K. Bloomberg & CBS covered his trades. This is the most transparent breakdown of how elite prediction markets traders find edge. We cover: - How edge really appears in prediction markets vs traditional investing - Why Trump vs Kamala was fundamentally unpriceable & how pros trade uncertainty - Why most prediction market prices are wrong & how traders find the ones that matter - The Middle East ceasefire trade & how near-misses burn the crowd - Getting burned in 2016 & 2024 on the US elections: confirmation bias & sizing mistakes at the top - Kelly sizing when your "edge" is just a guess with error bars - The French Whale: $50M on Trump using neighbor polling - Why elite traders rarely hold bets to settlement - Why prediction markets often have less noise than equities - Betting on tragedy & the incentive problems no one wants to discuss Thanks so much for coming on the pod @Domahhhh Highlights: 00:00 Intro 00:37: How Edge Works in Prediction Markets 01:30: How to Evaluate a Plus-EV Bet 03:53: Micro Events vs Headline Market Edge 04:44: Determining What Is Priced In 06:00: Short-Term Trading vs Holding to Resolution 08:24: Synthesizing News for Unique Events 10:16: Mean Reversion vs Momentum in Markets 11:23: Identifying Underreaction to New Information 14:26: Learning from Opposing Market Participants 16:00: Avoiding Confirmation Bias as a Trader 18:03: Losing Trades Caused by Confirmation Bias 21:23: Evaluating Bet Quality in Hindsight 25:46: Polling Errors and Market Pricing Lessons 28:34: Position Sizing in Prediction Markets 29:35: Sizing Bets Under Uncertainty 31:58: Why Prediction Markets Are Hard to Price 32:30: From Poker to Event Trading 35:16: Poker Skills That Transfer to Trading 38:23: Prediction Markets vs Equities Trading 42:24: Why Prediction Markets Have Less Noise 43:17: The French Whale and Market Distortion 48:35: Skill vs Luck in Large Bets 51:07: Ethics of Betting on Real-World Events 55:45: Are Prediction Markets Good for Society? 57:15: Incentive Risks and Market Influence 1:00:12: Regulation and the Future of Prediction Markets